Citizens JMP Securities has released a detailed analysis of Kalshi’s pricing during the NFL season opener, concluding that the prediction market operator failed to deliver on the promise of better value for bettors. The research compared Kalshi’s odds against DraftKings and FanDuel, focusing on money line and over/under bets, and found the exchange’s pricing was consistently more expensive once transaction fees were included.
According to Citizens, Kalshi’s money line and over/under bets were between 10% and 25% more costly than DraftKings on Friday, and 16% to 23% more expensive than FanDuel. Even as lines tightened closer to kickoff, Kalshi still lagged behind, with prices remaining 7% higher on money lines and 10% higher on over/under markets.
The key factor behind the disparity was Kalshi’s transaction fees, which averaged $1.63 for 100 money line contracts and $1.75 for over/under bets. While the company offers preferential terms to institutional players to build liquidity, retail customers bore the higher costs. Analysts also observed that Kalshi’s cash-out functionality was underwhelming in practice, as it lacks the parlay betting options that typically make early settlements valuable to players.
This finding directly challenges the long-standing belief that exchanges provide tighter, more efficient pricing than traditional sportsbooks. Citizens concluded that Kalshi, at least in its current form, represents little competitive threat to major operators in regulated U.S. betting markets. For now, DraftKings and FanDuel appear to maintain a clear advantage in both pricing and product functionality for retail sports bettors.
