Polymarket appears poised to legally operate prediction markets in the United States following a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The letter, issued by the CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight and Division of Clearing and Risk, provides relief regarding swap data reporting and recordkeeping rules for certain event contracts. It ensures that QCX, QC Clearing, and participants will not face enforcement actions, provided their activities remain within the scope outlined in the letter.
This regulatory milestone comes shortly after Polymarket acquired QCEX for $112 million. QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, provides a foundational framework for compliant operations in the US, addressing a longstanding barrier for the company. Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Coplan highlighted the significance of this development, celebrating the regulatory approval on social media platforms.
Interest in prediction markets has accelerated throughout 2025, with competitors like Kalshi raising $185 million at a $2 billion valuation and exploring multi-outcome event contracts similar to parlay bets in traditional sports wagering. Polymarket has also secured investment from 1789 Capital, linked to Donald Trump Jr., signaling strong financial backing for its expansion.
Despite this regulatory progress, internal dissent has emerged within the CFTC. Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson criticized the Commission for failing to finalize a framework for political event contracts and highlighted potential systemic risks, particularly for retail participants. She emphasized that the lack of clear rules and guardrails could create exposure to leveraged or margined products in the future.
Polymarket’s regulatory advancement illustrates a pragmatic approach to enabling innovation while addressing oversight challenges. As the company prepares to offer US prediction markets, the development sets a precedent for balancing regulatory compliance, market growth, and investor protection in emerging financial gaming sectors.
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